Where can punters get the most value from tennis betting?
September 14, 2020
This is a question that would have been discussed over many a pint as the tennis plays out in the background on one of the TVs at your local pub. The truth of the matter is that tennis – in particular, the men’s game – has been fairly predictable over the last 15 or so years. If you haven’t been either Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, or Rafa Nadal, well then it may even be a stretch to describe the pickings as slim.
This has meant that there has been precious little in the way of value in any of the matches that the Big Three feature in. As a way of example, you will normally find Roger Federer at odds of around 1/7 to beat a guy like Kyle Edmund, which essentially means that you have to part with a huge amount to come away with any sort of return. Indeed, a £100 bet would end up making you a rather slender £14 which suggests that the risk is too high. Typically, the day you decide to do it will probably be the day that Kyle Edmund, a player who is at 100/1 in the latest French Open odds, ends up playing the game of his life and beats Federer.
You have had to be quite adventurous in order to try and turn a profit in tennis over the last decade or so. Ultimately, though, putting any sort of money up against the Big Three in the hope of a lucrative upset is lacking in any real good sense. But there is a way of backing the Big Three and making money and it’s called handicap betting.
There are no demons in this type of betting and it is extremely straightforward. Basically, handicap betting is adding up the number of games each player has won in a match and then applying the handicap. So, let’s say 2019 French Open champion Rafa Nadal beats Dominic Theim 6-4 6-4, meaning Nadal has won 12 games, and Thiem eight. If the handicap was +4.5 for Thiem, and you bet on those odds, you would have won, as the Austrian would now have won 12.5 games thanks to the handicap adjustment.
Alternatively, if you had taken the handicap on Nadal to win by more than 4.5 then you would have lost, as Thiem managed to win eight and when you subtract 4.5 from 12 you’re left with 7.5. It really is that easy simple and lets you enjoy far better odds and greater returns without having to rely on the biggest upsets in tennis.
With that said and on a more optimistic note for the future of tennis betting as far as value goes, Thiem was actually able to beat Nadal in the quarterfinal at the Australian Open in 2020, which does hint at a possible changing of the guard, meaning that the playing fields could soon be a lot more level.
Until that day arrives though and tennis becomes more competitive, handicap betting is your best way of getting value out of betting on the sport.