Two Week 9 College Football Predictions
October 26, 2019
There is a ton of action for our college football betting in Week 9. But only a few games that jump out as being valuable when it comes to the odds. Let’s look at a couple of games that ooze value at Bovada sports.
Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs
This is a game that opened with Texas Christian as two-point favourites. But the public has flipped the script with all the action coming in on Texas. This one is kind of a conundrum and I’m wondering if it is a trap.
TCU was originally listed as the home favorite but it’s curious because they’ve lost two straight conference games and can’t seem to cover the spread very well against Big 12 opponents. Perhaps it’s because Texas nearly lost to the Kansas Jayhawks last week … That said, TCU took a loss to Kansas State. They couldn’t move the ball through the air and were forced to try and win on the ground, and it just didn’t work, even though they rank No. 13 in the nation with their ground attack.
Texas is scoring 39 points per game and TCU puts up 37 points per game. But Texas allows almost 28 points per game will the Horned Frogs allow just under 25. OK. So, TCU Should be one-point favorites then, correct?
Not so fast!
Both teams improve significantly given the current Week 9 situation. Texas plays better on the road. They allow just 22 points per game on D and the Horned Frogs just under 21. But the big kicker is that the Longhorns increase their scoring output to 45 points per game while on the highway, and TCU as well, they boost their numbers to 42.67. If we round that up to 43, we still end up with the Horns as slight favs.
TCU will be pitting their No. 24 home rushing attack against the 13th best road run defense in the country. Given the fact that they couldn’t pass the ball against Kansas State, I see quite a bit of value in taking the Longhorns to cover the short number. You can find it at -1.
Take Texas to Win and Cover.
Auburn Tigers vs. LSU Tigers
Auburn fell to Florida but ran over a pitiful Arkansas team to move back up to No. 9. But now they have to go into LSU, where those Tigers are scoring 51 points per game … still. To top it off, Auburn is 0-9 when visiting LSU. The line opened at 11 but has moved down to 10.5 at many books.
The simple fact is, Auburn is only putting 20.5 points per game up while on the road. Their rushing attack sputters down to 158 yards per game which is only good enough for the No. 53 road rushing attack in the country. And their passing game is virtually non-existent, falling to just 125 yards per game. They do boast an elite run defense, that allows just 94 road yards per game, but their secondary gets lit up for an average of 300 yards per affair when playing as the visiting team. Their No. 105 ranked road passing defense is going to fall victim to the No. 2 passing, and No. 1 scoring offense in the country.
Mountains of value on the LSU to win by at least 13 points. That said, if you are feeling like you need a safety net, buy that half-point down for a few cents and take LSU -10.