Promoted Teams Odds On For Premier League Relegation Next Season

Brentford have returned to the top flight for the first time since 1947, after a 2-0 win against Swansea in Saturday’s Championship play-off final. Brentford join Norwich City and Watford who are returning to the Premier League after a year’s absence.  The trio replace Fulham, Sheffield United and West Brom who have slid down to the Championship for the 2021/22 season.

The financial rewards of promotion are considerable and Brentford’s win is expected to be worth around £180 million for the West London club, reflecting the vast broadcasting fees of approximately £3 billion that are shared between the 20 clubs in the Premier League.  With the decrease in funds due to the recent lack of ticket sales, all three promoted clubs will need to make canny use of their new revenue streams because the challenges facing them are enormous as they strive to be competitive with the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United et al.  The essential ingredients for success in the Premier League remain universal – talented players operating within a cohesive team, an excellent manager supported by committed owners with deep pockets, good training facilities and infrastructure.  Can the newly promoted clubs rise to the challenge?

Fans of Brentford, Norwich and Watford will be backing their teams to the hilt but they may also be mindful of the pitfalls facing newly-promoted clubs.  After all, of the three clubs promoted at the start of the 2020/21 season, only Leeds United have managed to stay up, finishing mid-table with 59 points.   In contrast, both Fulham and West Brom had a dismal season, gaining only 28 and 23 points respectively.  

Norwich City were relegated at the end of the 2019/20 season, coming bottom of the Premier League table with only 21 points, but the Canaries managed to achieve promotion again this time round, demonstrating how fluid the situation can be for clubs that are unable to consolidate their position in the Premier League.  Head coach Daniel Farke has been in post since 2017 and enjoys the continued support of owners, Delia Smith and Michael Wynn-Jones, but bookmakers reckon he will be unable to keep Norwich in the Premier League this time round, with bookie BoyleSports offering odds of 5/ 6 that the Canaries will be relegated again at the end of next season.  

Brentford are also considered to be likely candidates for relegation with odds of 11/10 from Bet365.  The Bees had lost their previous four play-off finals – in 1997, 2003, 2013 and 2020 – before their convincing win against Swansea at Wembley last weekend.  Bookies doubt that this small club, in just their second season at the new Brentford Community Stadium, will be able to withstand the frenetic pressure of the Premier League.    

However owner Mathew Benham is unlikely to be daunted by the extent of the challenge ahead and the entrepreneur owner of Matchbook and Smartodds will continue to employ his innovative analytics-led approach to make the most of the club’s relatively meagre resources.  He says “I am not just talking about whether a team wins or loses or scores or not because there is a huge amount of what we call noise in that statistic. I want to look at the number and quality of the chances they created. If I am looking at a striker I absolutely do not care about his goalscoring record. For me the only thing that is interesting is how the team does collectively, offensively and defensively within the context of an individual’s performance.”

Another team that may well struggle next season is newly-promoted Watford.  The Hornets have had a topsy-turvy couple of years.  They finished 11th in the Premier League at the end of the 2018/19 season but were relegated the following season, finishing 19th and just one point from safety.  Although Watford have bounced back into the Premier League as the runner-up to Championship winner Norwich, bookie Bet365 offers odds of 11/10 that the Hornets will be relegated again by the close of season next May.  

Crystal Palace, Burnley and Newcastle United are also tipped as candidates for relegation with odds of 5/2 for Palace and 11/4 for Burnley with William Hill and also 11/4 for Newcastle with SkyBet.  The new season will start on 14 August, with the fixtures due to be announced next month.  All six clubs will be keen to prove the bookies wrong and finish outside the bottom three.