Matched Betting Ideal for 2020 NFL Season Futures
April 6, 2020
Back in February, Kansas City Chiefs established themselves as the new kings of NFL. In beating San Francisco 49ers by a 31-20 scoreline, the Chiefs secured their first Super Bowl win in fifty years, marking only their second-ever triumph in Football’s showpiece event. Despite their newfound greatness, they still have small odds against them retaining the crown, making the Chiefs a popular draw for NFL fans in states with legalized sports betting.
With the virtues of NFL matched betting ripe for being utilized, these are the outrights as they stand going into April 2020:
Kansas’ price: Reactive or proactive?
With futures prices yet to undergo the usual summer shift, the latest American football betting odds for the upcoming season name reigning champions Kansas City Chiefs as the default outrights to win the Super Bowl yet again in early 2021. They have a special group that could produce something special and win numerous Super Bowl titles over the next few years.
There is nothing to suggest that Andy Reid won’t lead his team to an AFC West title (at least) again with their electric West Coast scheme. However, the Baltimore Ravens will be hoping for a much stronger postseason performance this time around, and the 49ers will once again be contenders. There is also a strong belief that the Saints will have learned how to not shoot themselves in the foot after looking so promising throughout 2019.
While they are three very strong teams, the Chiefs deserve their favorites tag. There aren’t a huge number of realistic contenders this year, but there is no way to be absolutely sure at this stage. As with any other NFL year, there are certainly a few outsiders who could produce something special, and that provides all the more reason for people to place their futures bets now, rather than wait until the new season is a month old.
(ABOVE) On 30 March 2020, BJ Kissel analyzed the possible draft picks for the Chiefs at pick 32.
Which 2020 division favorites seems most assured of winning it?
A clear favorite for their division title is the Baltimore Ravens at -200, even though the Pittsburgh Steelers are always a threat. NFL’s outright MVP of 2019 Lamar Jackson would have been bitterly disappointed by how last season ended after dominating the AFC North with 14 wins.
There is a huge Tom Brady shaped hole in the Patriots but Bill Belichick is still there to reign over his team. It’s hard to bet against them making it 12 division titles in a row. It could be very close and while they are now huge outsiders for the Super Bowl, it’s still likely they’ll keep their grip on the AFC East.
All the other divisions are very close. Indeed, the NFC overall is going to be fiercely contested, with favorites for the division titles elsewhere enjoying only a slim projected advantage over their division rivals.
The performances of Lamar Jackson for the Ravens in 2019 are a principal reason for their short futures odds. Detailed above are his career stats to date. Data source: ESPN.
What is the main advantage of matched betting with NFL futures markets?
Unless otherwise indicated, a matched bet is one placed with a sportsbook that covers any bet 100% up to a certain maximum value. It can be applied to either moneyline or spread betting, though it is important to know the difference between those two types of wagering. While many bettors will only use them for individual matches or multiple bets, there are distinct advantages to using them on futures markets.
Matched bets enable bettors to place even a low wager on distant odds without risk of immediate financial loss. For instance, if $5 was wagered on LA Rams in a 100% matched bet – with (for instance) price of +2500 against them doing so – the potential payout ($125) would be unaffected.
Using matched bets on futures markets, whether for the Super Bowl or merely a division or conference futures win, is best done early on. Even a shock win for a rank outsider to start the season can often cause sportsbooks to react, and drastically shorten the relevant team’s futures price.