Brexit Betting Update – Will It Happen?
April 13, 2019
The big political news this week has been the decision by the European Union (EU) to grant an extension to Brexit by agreeing to the extension of the deadline for the UK to leave until 31st October 2019.. This extra six months it is hoped will give the UK Government sufficient time to find a way forward that can gain a majority in the House Of Commons. But there are many options now open and UK bookmakers are quoting odds on many various possible outcomes.
Interestingly, the new political party formed by former UKIP leader Nigel Farage is already seen by bookies as being much more likely than the Conservative party to win most seats in the upcoming European elections with the best Odds for the Brexit Party at 5/2 with Ladbrokes whilst the Tories can be backed at odds of 8/1 with Skybet.
Whilst the odds have narrowed somewhat on Article 50 being revoked this outcome favoured by remainers is still seen as unlikely with the general odds of 2/1 suggesting only around a 33% likelihood.
With regard to when , if ever Brexit will actually happen the odds on Betfair Exchange are quite revealing with July-December being preferred at odds of approx 15/8 , only marginally ahead of Not Before 2022 which is quoted at odds of approx 9/4 with all options in between and earlier at much higher odds . This shows that really anything could still happen and whilst most people have a strong opinion on the subject it’s really quite a tough one to call .
What has become obvious over the last few months is that both main political parties in the UK are very divided on this issue and unable to reach a consensus amongst themselves . This division is expected to be reflected in a poor showing for both Labour and Conservatives at the next General Election with neither party expected to be able to win an overall majority. Indeed Betfred now offer odds of 11/4 for the Tories whilst a Labour overall majority is available at odds of 4/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral .
With a big difference in many of the odds available and rapidly changing betting markets, it’s clear that its not only the politicians who are struggling to make sense of the Brexit debate .