Bookmakers Expect Tight Finish To General Election
June 8, 2017
The final weeks of campaigning have seen the Conservative lead shrinking over Labour and bookmakers expect a tight finish to the general election when the votes are counted on Thursday night.
Many predicted a landslide victory for the Conservatives when Theresa May called for a general election. The Prime Minister’s goal was to increase the Tory majority in the House of Commons and put herself in a strong position to push forward with Brexit plans.
Opinion polls give an indication of how people intend to vote but there is no way of knowing how many of those polled will turn up at the booths on Thursday. The latest YouGov poll put the Tory party four points ahead of Labour with two days to go, however an ICM poll has the Conservatives standing with an 11 point advantage.
Perhaps we should ask bookmakers who will win the election as they usually have their fingers on the pulse. Conservative odds have drifted since the start of the campaign although they remain strong favourites to get the most seats at 1/10. Labour has shortened in price from 10/1 to 8/1 with Liberal Democrats 1000/1.
The concern for Theresa May is that she could end up with fewer, or only a few more, seats than she inherited from David Cameron which could cause problems in the face of tough negotiations as the UK plots its course out of Europe.
Jeremy Corbyn has been campaigning vigorously and gained many plaudits for his appearance on the BBC Leaders Debate which Theresa May chose to boycott. Labour has gradually been inching closer to the Tories although there is still a significant deficit to overcome.
If Labour continues to increase its popularity between now and June 8, Corbyn will win more of the vote than Ed Milliband in 2015 and Theresa May could be left with a much smaller majority than expected.