Betting on Game of Thrones
April 13, 2019
Game of Thrones returns for its final season on 14th April 2019 and has left fans with a mix of emotions. Many have had this date in their diaries since last year but will feel some sense of sadness as an era comes to an end.
The shows combative nature and the characters desire for power make it perfect for bookmakers taking bets and it has proved very popular in just that.
Novelty betting is betting on non-sports-related events and has grown in popularity over the past few years with bookmakers offering odds on markets such as:
- Tv shows such as Game of Thrones, X Factor and Big Brother
- Political events such as elections and Brexit
- Award ceremonies such as The Brits and Oscars
- Anything else that has an anticipated outcome. Even the name and gender of celebrity and royal babies
Novelty bets are bookmakers’ way of targetting an additional audience. People who bet on TV series’ such as Game of Thrones or Love Island may not usually bet on sports and may have never even placed a bet before. It’s a chance for them to attract new customers and add some diversity in their betting markets.
With sports betting, bookmakers use complex methods to calculate their odds. These methods have been refined over many years and they’re more accurate than they’ve ever been. Factors such as past results and player stats have been recorded for centuries and by using specialist software, bookmakers are able to predict the likelihood of an outcome better than anyone. However, these kind of stats don’t exist for novelty markets, at least not accurate ones as they depend on other factors out of the control of the bookmakers. For example, unless the bookmakers have inside information, only the writers and people who work on the Game of Thrones show will know what is going to happen in the final series.
So how do they set their odds?
One bookmaker has said that they simply use staff in the office to calculate the odds. Staff who are avid fans and who have in-depth knowledge of the show. Enough to give an informed decision as to what the likely outcomes will be. However, what makes these people more qualified to predict the outcome than you? The truth is, nothing. If you’re a Game of Thrones fanatic, or for any other TV show that bookmakers are taking bets on, there could be an opportunity for you to have the edge and possibly make a good profit.
Whatever the bookmakers decide are the most likely outcomes, it’s inevitable that they will shorten the odds in their favour so that they have a margin. This is how they generally make a profit with their bets. It’s likely that they will also limit the bet size customers can place on novelty bets. It’s possible and likely that there are people who do know the outcome of the final season of Game of Thrones. After all, filming has finished and all it takes is one member of the set to mention it to friends or family. Bookmakers will want to limit their exposure on these markets otherwise they could take a big hit if there was a leak.
How is your knowledge on Game of Thrones? Do you have any predictions for season 8? If so, you could stand a chance of making some money by beating the bookies on this unpredictable market.
Although many will use novelty betting to make a small punt for fun, there may be an opportunity to lock in a profit using matched betting methods. Some betting exchanges, as well as bookmakers, accept novelty bets with the difference being that on betting exchanges, you can also place lay bets. Lay bets are when you are betting on something not to happen. For example, if you believe a certain act in Britains Got Talent will make it at least a few more weeks, you could place a bet on them with a bookmaker. In a few weeks time, should the act still remain, their odds will have shortened and you may be able to make a profit by simply laying them on a betting exchange.
If you think you have good knowledge on a TV show, head on over to an online bookmaker and see if you can beat them at their own game.