Betting Odds For Next Conservative Leader
May 30, 2019
One week after Teresa May formally announced the date for her long-awaited resignation as the 7th June there has been a rush from Conservative MP’s to announce their intention to take their place in the upcoming leadership contest to replace her.
Boris Johnson has been favourite to become the next Conservative Leader and some bookmakers even quoted the former Foreign Secretary at odds on in the immediate aftermath of May’s resignation. Now that the dust has begun to settle somewhat and at the time of writing, fifteen Tory MP’s have put themselves forward, odds on Johnson winning have drifted and many observers consider him to be a false favourite.
Currently available at odds of 9/4 with Skybet, Boris is clearly a firm favourite with members of the Conservative party and it is they who will ultimately decide the next Tory Leader. The way the process works is a bit convoluted with Tory MP’s having a series of votes each time eliminating one candidate until there are only 2 candidates left. At this stage, the vote is put to the rank and file Conservative Members across the UK thought to number approx. 120 000.
Now it seems very clear that Boris Johnson would win a vote of the Tory Members but will he survive the process to reach that stage?
Currently, half the Parliamentary Conservative party have declared their allegiances. Boris Johnson is in the leading group but he is not at the head of it as his popularity with MP’s is significantly lower than it is with the Members as a whole.
In the last few days, it has become obvious that Michael Gove is a strong contender and he and Boris Johnson have history with Gove openly criticising Johnson ahead of the last Conservative Leadership Campaign in 2016 leading to Johnson eventually withdrawing from that contest. Gove is generally available at odds of 7/2 with most UK bookies and approx odds of 4/1 available at Betfair Exchange.
Other candidates include Dominic Raab 11/2 with Betfair but as short as 7/2 with some bookmakers, Andrea Leadsom 6/1 with William Hill and Rory Stewart available at odds of 20/1 with Ladbrokes but only 12/1 with other online betting sites.
This contest will dominate the Summer headlines with a result not expected until mid-July but at current odds, Johnson represents poor value.